PERFORMANCE
MEGA-TRADE$ INDIVIDUAL COMMODITY PERFORMANCE:
Often I am asked, "Why trade all of the MEGA-TRADE$ commodities? Why not trade just a couple of the most successful commodities, such as the Yen and Soybeans?"
Based upon an examination of longer periods of time, 20 years and longer, it seems to me that this approach has two sides to it. On the one hand for instance, it may be true that my analysis of the past 10 years performance is more indicative of upcoming performance. However, some commodities have been a good but lukewarm performers for recent years, , while for the past 20 years, they have performed very, very well. So, perhaps no commodity should be excluded from trading - based, of course, on your account size being sufficient for that particular PORTFOLIO which I am in the process of developing. Until those PORTFOLIOS are finished, the SUMMARY table below can serve as a guide as to which commodities to trade.
Since commodities move not only in the cycles that MEGA-TRADE$ measures, but in much longer ones as well, that may determine a change in future profitability - commodities that performed best the past decade may not be the best in the future, but rather the best performers may be those commodities showing top performance for a longer period of time.
All of the data in the following table below, after 5/1/07 represents results from the recommendations made on our nightly MEGA-TRADE$ REPORTS.
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TOTAL REPORTS NET FROM 5/1/2007 TO 2/28/2011: $ +67,264.90.
MAX. INTER-MONTH DRAWDOWN APRIL, 2008 - SEPTEMBER, 2008: $-15,887.35.
***
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT HYPOTHETICAL TESTING:
Most of 2010 was spent in trying to make as perfect as possible the MEGA-TRADE$ cyclical analysis. This involved what is called "back-testing" or hypothetical testing. Ethical as well as regulatory considerations require that this be pointed out, along with the oft-seen phrase "past performance is no guarantee of future success".
While this is undoubtedly true, and while I have seen numerous systems that performed well in back-testing fall apart when applied to real-time trading, nonetheless I believe we have to use the past in order to try to predict the future. A mammoth amount of data was used for the Updated Version MEGA-TRADE$ development, as much as 62 years (for Wheat).
It is impossible to assume that the hypothetical results below will equal or even come close to the real-time performance for the Updated Version MEGA-TRADE$ methodology put into effect in early 2011. Losses will occur, and as you will see in the table below, there are a number of years where there were net hypothetical losses for certain commodities.
It is my hope, and my belief, that the real-time results for the Updated Version of the MEGA-TRADE$ methodology will be profitable, and hopefully very profitable, perhaps even rivaling the performance figures below.
Michael Chisholm
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MEGA
TRADE$
SUMMARY 2004 -2010 TOTAL YEARLY NET - BASED ON HYPOTHETICAL TESTING OF UPDATED VERSION PUT INTO EFFECT FOR 2011.
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***
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MEGA TRADE$ PERFORMANCE SUMMARY BASED ON HYPOTHETICAL TESTING OF UPDATED VERSION PUT INTO EFFECT FOR NIGHTLY REPORTS FOR 2011.
NOTE: IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TRADING ANY COMMODITY THAT HAS LESS THAN 100 TRADES RESEARCHED BELOW.
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***
MORE PERFORMANCE FIGURES TO BE PUBLISHED REGULARLY,
MEGA-TRADE$ TRADE-BY-TRADE FROM THE NIGHTLY REPORTS:
TOTAL REPORTS
Based upon trading one (1) contract of each recommended trade and a $75 commission/slippage deduction. No deductions made after 1/1/11.
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MARCH, 2011– MEGA-TRADE$ MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
|
CUMULATIVE |
|
BPH 1/12 L @ 1.5639 |
3/7 @ 1.6277 |
+3,987.50 |
$ +3,987.50 |
|
|
3/8 @ 104.24 |
+4,230.00 |
+8,217.50 |
|
SIK 2/25 L @ 33.475 |
3/11 @ 34.350 |
+4,375.00 |
+12,592.50 |
|
SMK 3/9 S @ 356.90 |
3/16 @ 345.80 |
+1,110.00 |
+13,702.50 |
|
SK 3/14 S @ 1323.75 |
3/17 @ 1344.75 |
-1,050.00 |
+12,652.50 |
|
BPM 3/7 L @ 1.6259 |
3/24 @ 1.6183 |
-475.00 |
+12,177.50 |
|
GCM 3/24 L @ 1439.60 |
3/24 @ 1432.50 |
-710.00 |
+11,467.50 |
|
GCM 3/25 L @ 1438.10 |
3/25 @ 1431.00 |
-710.00 |
+10,757.50 |
|
SK 3/28 L @ 1366.25 |
3/28 @ 1352.00 |
-712.50 |
+10,045.00 |
|
LHM 3/29 L @ 103.75 |
3/30 @ 102.750 |
-330.00 |
+9,715.00 |
|
SBK 3/30 S @ 26.31 |
3/30 @ 27.29 |
-1,097.60 |
+8,617.40 |
|
CK 3/29 S @ 668.00 |
3/31 @ 730.00 |
-3,100.00 |
+5,517.40 |
|
FEBRUARY, 2011– MEGA-TRADE$ MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
|
CUMULATIVE |
|
SFH 1/31 L @ 1.0656 |
2/2 @ 105.92 |
$ -800.00 |
$ -800.00 |
|
LCJ 1/31 L @ 113.425 |
2/3 @ 112.750 |
-270.00 |
-1,070.00 |
|
JYH 1/31 L @ 1.2205 |
2/9 @ 1.2125 |
-1,000.00 |
-2,070.00 |
|
CDH 2/8 L @ 1.0125 |
2/11 @ 1.0010 |
-1,150.00 |
-3,220.00 |
|
WH 1/18 L @ 789.25 |
2/22 @ 803.75 |
+725.00 |
-2,495.00 |
|
KCH 1/28 L @ 241,85 |
2/23 @ 272.55 |
+11,512.50 |
+9,017.50 |
|
|
2/24 @ 32.720 |
+350.00 |
+9,367.50 |
|
CH 12/20 L @ 599.25 |
2/28 @ 652.25 |
+3,512.50 |
+12,880.00 |
|
OJH 2/18 L @ 175.35 |
2/28 @ 179.95 |
+690.00 |
+13,570.00 |
|
JANUARY, 2011– MEGA-TRADE$ MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
|
CUMULATIVE |
|
HGH 12/28 L @ 431.20 |
1/04 @ 438.95 |
$ +1,937.50 |
$ +1,937.50 |
|
|
1/04 @ 30.7770 |
-825.00 |
+1,112.50 |
|
ECH 1/6 L @ 1.3424 |
1/6 @ 1.3336 |
-1,100.00 |
+12.50 |
|
ECH 1/18 L @ 1.3454 |
1/18 @ 1.3366 |
-1,100.00 |
-1,087.50 |
************************************************************************8
2010:
|
DECEMBER, 2010– MEGA-TRADE$ MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
OJF 11/16 S @ 152.10 |
12/1 @ 156.35 |
-712.50 |
$ -712.50 |
|
JYZ 11/26 S @ 1.1936 |
12/3 @ 1.2087 |
-1,962.50 |
-2,665.00 |
|
SFZ 11/26 S @ 1.0012 |
12/3 @ 1.0140 |
-1,675.00 |
-4,340.00 |
|
GCG 12/6 L @ 1412.80 |
12/8 @ 1401.30 |
-1,225.00 |
-5,565.00 |
|
SIH 12/6 L @ 2991.50 |
12/8 @ 2979.50 |
-675.00 |
-6,753.00 |
|
BPH 12/9 S @ 1.5756 |
12/10 @ 1.5864 |
-625.00 |
-6,965.50 |
|
JYH 12/8 S @ 1.1879 |
12/13 @ 1.2023 |
-1,875.00 |
-8,840.50 |
|
OJH 12/6 L @ 158.80 |
12/14 @ 164.15 |
+727.50 |
-8,113.00 |
|
NGG 12/6 L @ 4.375 |
12/14 @ 4.310 |
-400.00 |
-8,513.00 |
|
CDH 12/13 L @ .9903 |
12/14 @ .9877 |
-335.00 |
-8,848.00 |
|
HGH 12/6 L @ 4.000 |
12/16 @ 4.1075 |
+2,612.50 |
-6,235,50 |
|
SFH 12/22 L @ 1.0478 |
12/23 @ 1.0414 |
-800.00 |
-7,035.50 |
|
WH 12/22 L @ 784.25 |
12/29 @ 791.25 |
+275.00 |
-6,760.05 |
|
NOVEMBER, 2010– MEGA-TRADE$ MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
ADZ 11/8 L @ 1.0102 |
11/8 @ 1.0066 |
$ -595.00 |
$ -595.00 |
|
OJF 11/9 L @ 158.05 |
11/10 @ 155.40 |
-472.50 |
-1,067.50 |
|
ECZ 9/21 L @ 1.3156 |
11/11 @ 1,3686 |
+6,550.00 |
+5,482.50 |
|
JYZ 9/27 L @ 1.1899 |
11/11 @ 1.2148 |
+3,037.50 |
+8,520.00 |
|
CCZ 11/16 S @ 2695 |
11/18 @ 2847 |
-1,595.00 |
+6,925.00 |
|
ADZ 11/11 S @ .9917 |
11/22 @ .9917 |
-75.00 |
+6,850.00 |
|
OJF 11/16 S @ 152.10 |
12/1 @ 156.35 |
-712.50 |
+6,137.50 |
|
OCTOBER, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
CLX 9/30 L @ 78.53 |
10/15 @ 81.59 |
$ +2,985.00 |
$ +2,985.00 |
|
HOX 9/30 L @ 2.1660 |
10/25 @ 2.2550 |
+3,663.00 |
+6,648.00 |
|
NGX 9/27 S @ 3.985 |
10/25 @ 3.317 |
+3,265.00 |
+9,913.00 |
|
KCZ 10/25 L @ 203.55 |
10/26 @ 199.55 |
-1,500.00 |
+8,413.00 |
|
TYZ 9/28 L @ 126-030 |
10/27 @ 125-040 |
-1,043.75 |
+7,369.25 |
|
LCZ 10/18 L @ 100.525 |
10/29 @ 98.775 |
-775.00 |
+6,594.25 |
|
SEPTEMBER, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
OJX 9/3 S @ 135.25 |
9/9 @ 142.05 |
$ -1,095.00 |
$ -1,095.00 |
|
SBV 8/16 L @ 19.69 |
9/21 @ 23.70 |
+4,491.20 |
+3,396.20 |
|
HGZ 9/17 L @ 353.50 |
9/29 @ 366.50 |
+3,175.00 |
+6,571.20 |
|
AUGUST, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
SU 7/30 @ 1005.25 |
8/5 @ 1052.00 |
$ +2,262,50 |
$ +2,262.50 |
|
JYU 7/16 L @ 115.13 |
8/24 @ 118.25 |
+3,825.00 |
+6,087.50 |
|
HOV 8/23 S @ 1.9770 |
8/25 @ 2.0235 |
-2,028.00 |
+4,059.50 |
|
BPU 7/14 L @ 152,30 |
8/31 @ 153.85 |
+968.75 |
+5,028.25 |
|
JULY, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
WU 6/28 S @ 469.75 |
7/1 @ 488.50 |
$ -1,012.50 |
$ -1,012.50 |
|
BOU 6/28 S @ 37.38 |
7/9 @ 37.38 |
-75.00 |
-1.087.50 |
|
GCQ 7/12 S @ 1202.50 |
7/13 @ 1211.10 |
-935.00 |
-2,022.50 |
|
NKU 7/20 S @ 9200 |
7/28 @ 9660 |
-2,375.00 |
-4,397.50 |
|
JUNE, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
HGN 6/3 S @ 292.75 |
6/14 @ 300.35 |
$ -1,975.00 |
$ -1,975.00 |
|
LHQ 6/4 S @ 80.675 |
6/21 @ 83.675 |
-1,275.00 |
-3,250.00 |
|
USU L 6/16 L @ 124-15 |
6/21 @ 123-18 |
-981.25 |
-4,231.25 |
|
SMN 6/21 L @ 290.10 |
6/28 @ 292.30 |
+145.00 |
-4,086.25 |
|
BON 6/4 S @ 36.95 |
6/28 @ 36.94 |
-65.00 |
-4,151.25 |
|
WN 5/24 S @ 470.50 |
6/28 @ 449.50 |
+975.00 |
-3,176.25 |
|
SMU 6/28 L @ 273.90 |
6/30 @ 268.80 |
-585.00 |
-3,761.25 |
|
WU 6/28 S @ 469.75 |
7/1 @ 488.50 |
-1,012.50 |
-4,773.75 |
|
MAY, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
CCN 4/20 L @ 3034 |
5/7 @ 3042 |
$ +5.00 |
$ +5.00 |
|
WN 5/4 L @ 511.75 |
5/14 @ 473.75 |
-1,975.00 |
-1,970.00 |
|
GCM 4/28 L @ 1165.10 |
5/14 @ 1228.80 |
+6,295.00 |
+4,325.00 |
|
SIN 5/11 L @ 1861.50 |
5/17 @ 1906.50 |
+2,175.00 |
+6,500.00 |
|
CDM 5/19 S @ 95.23 |
5/19 @ 95.95 |
-795.00 |
+5,705.00 |
|
APRIL - 2010 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
NGM 4/5 S @ 4.005 |
4/5 @ 4.200 |
$ -1,050.00 |
$-1,050.00 |
|
JYM 3/24 S @ 109.83 |
4/7 @ 107.02 |
+ 3,437.50 |
+2,387.50 |
|
CTK 4/5 L @ 82.97 |
4/9 @ 78.17 |
-2,475.00 |
-87.50 |
|
HOK 3/31 L @ 216.31 |
4/12 @ 221.90 |
+2,272.80 |
+2,185.30 |
|
WK 3/10 S 480.50 |
4/14 @ 480.75 |
-87.50 |
+2,079.80 |
|
HGK 3/29 L @ 349.25 |
4/16 @ 352.80 |
+812.50 |
+2,892.30 |
|
GCM 3/7 L @ 1144.70 |
4/16 @ 1137.70 |
-775.00 |
+2,117.30 |
|
CDM 3/15 L @ 98.13 |
4/16 @ 98.80 |
+595.00 |
+2,712.30 |
|
NQM 4/1 S @ 1945.75 |
4/20 @ 2038.25 |
-1,925.00 |
+787.30 |
|
CUM 4/12 L @ 135.95 |
4/21 @ 133.96 |
-2,550.00 |
-1,762.70 |
|
SIN 4/26 L @ 1838.50 |
4/26 @ 1825.50 |
-725.00 |
-2,487.70 |
|
KCN 4/27 S @ 130.65 |
4/28 @ 133.30 |
-1,068.75 |
-3,556.45 |
|
SMK 4/13 L @ 274.40 |
4/28 @286.80 |
+1,165.00 |
-2,391.45 |
|
AUM 4/27 S @ 90.99 |
4/28 @ 91.61 |
-695.00 |
-3,086.45 |
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MARCH - 2010 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
GCJ 3/2 L @ 1124.40 |
3/9 @ 1116.20 |
$ -895.00 |
$ -895.00 |
|
HGK 3/1 L @ 337.70 |
3/15 @ 332.10 |
-1,475.00 |
-2,370.00 |
|
CDH 3/2 L @ 96.81 |
3/15 @ 98.19 |
+1,305.00 |
-1,065.00 |
|
CCK 3/16 S @ 2778 |
3/17 @ 2932 |
-1,615.00 |
-2,680.00 |
|
CTK 3/18 L @ 82.60 |
3/26 @ 80.15 |
-687.50 |
-3,367.50 |
|
FEBRUARY, 2010 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
USH 2/1 L @ 119-04 |
2/1 @ 118-15 |
-656.25 |
$ -656.25 |
|
BPH 2/1 S @ 159.38 |
2/15 @ 157.64 |
+1,012.50 |
+356.25 |
|
DXH 1/26 L @ 79.010 |
2/15 @ 79.810 |
+725.00 |
+1,081.25 |
|
NQH 2/9 S @ 1730.75 |
2/15 @ 1793.00 |
-1,320.00 |
-238.75 |
|
CUH 1/19 S @ 142.56 |
2/23 @ 136.55 |
+7,437.50 |
+7,198.75 |
|
USH 2/17 S @ 116-22 |
2/23 @ 117-06 |
-500.00 |
+6,698.75 |
|
JANUARY, 2010– MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
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|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
HOG 12/29 L @ 212.00 |
1/13@ 208.70 |
-1,461.00 |
$ -1,461.00 |
|
DJH 1/19 L @ 10,677 |
1/20@ 10,557 |
-1,200.00 |
-2,661.00 |
|
ESH 12/22 L @ 1107.25 |
1/21 @ 1113.00 |
+68.75 |
-2,592.25 |
2009
|
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER, 2009 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
OJF 11/11 L @ 116.75 |
11/25@ 111.15 |
-915.00 |
$ -915.00 |
|
HSZ 11/16 L @ 305.55 |
11/30@ 314.85 |
+2,250.00 |
+1,335.00 |
|
NKZ 11/24 S @ 9375 |
12/1@ 9515 |
-1,475.00 |
-140.00 |
|
BPZ 11/13 L @ 166.35 |
12/8 @ 162.68 |
-2,368.75 |
-2,508.75 |
|
HGH 11/30 L @ 317.70 |
12/9@ 313.35 |
-1,162.50 |
-3,671.25 |
|
SH 12/15 L @ 1071.25 |
12/17@ 1039.25 |
-1,675.00 |
-5,346.25 |
|
BOF 11/13 L @ 39.16 |
12/17@ 39.16 |
-75.00 |
-5,421.25 |
|
CCH 11/30 L @ 3320 |
12/28@ 3234 |
-935.00 |
-6,356.25 |
|
OJF 12/7 L @ 124.05 |
12/31@ 126.70 |
+322.50 |
-6,033.75 |
|
OCTOBER, 2009 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
SX 10/2 S @ 894.00 |
10/8@ 931.25 |
-1,937.50 |
$ -1,937.50 |
|
SMZ 10/2 S @ 272.20 |
10/8@ 284.10 |
-1,265.00 |
-3,202.50 |
|
WZ 8/31 S @ 485.50 |
10/8@ 474.50 |
+475.00 |
-2,727.50 |
|
BOZ 9/25 S @ 33.87 |
10/12 @ 35.68 |
-1,161.00 |
-3,888.50 |
|
SEPTEMBER, 2009 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
GCV 9/2 L @ 977.10 |
9/9 @ 990.60 |
$ +1,275.00 |
$ +1,275.00 |
|
CU 8/27 S @ 315.75 |
9/11 @ 314.50 |
-12.50 |
+1,262.50 |
|
DXU 8/21 S @ 78.300 |
9/11 @ 76.640 |
+1,585.00 |
+2,847.50 |
|
AUGUST, 2009 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
WU 7/29 S @ 511.50 |
8/3 @ 536.00 |
$ -1,300.00 |
$ -1,300.00 |
|
OJU 8/3 S @ 91.20 |
8/4 @ 93.90 |
-480.00 |
-1,780.00 |
|
BPU 7/31 L @ 166.02 |
8/10 @ 166.44 |
+187.50 |
-1,592.50 |
|
CTZ 8/12 L @ 64.24 |
8/14 @ 61.61 |
-1,390.00 |
-2,982.50 |
|
OJX 8/10 L @ 107.90 |
8/17 @ 101.75 |
-997.50 |
-3,980.00 |
|
JULY, 2009 – MEGA-TRADES MONTH’S CLOSED TRADES |
|||
|
ENTRY |
EXIT |
NET |
CUMULATIVE |
|
NO TRADES. |
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2008:
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***
MORE PERFORMANCE FIGURES TO BE PUBLISHED REGULARLY,
PLEASE CHECK BACK OFTEN.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING
TAURUS CORP., 1 SOUTH WASHINGTON ST., WINCHESTER, VA 22601-4129 PHONE: 540-667-4827
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